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A Statistical Assessment of the paper: “Democratic Backsliding in World's Largest Democracy”


Introduction

In a recent paper, "Democratic Backsliding in World's Largest Democracy", Professor Sabyasachi Das boldly claimed to provide "objective evidence of democratic backsliding in the form of electoral manipulation in the world's largest democracy – India." Beyond doubt, the title and the claim of the paper merit attention as it questions the institution entrusted to conduct free and fair elections and ensure a peaceful transfer of power, an essential pillar of democracy. However, in this note, I wish to highlight that the statistical findings of the paper do not support the claims in the paper. Furthermore, through this note, I wish to draw the attention of academics, journalists, public policy experts, policymakers, and the informed civil society that great care must be taken in interpreting statistical outcomes, or else we will be "fooled by randomness".


Political Claims and Statistical Findings_Updated
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